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Investment Outlook —
Contents:

1 First Quarter Review
2 Recessions and Equity Returns
3 Popular Economic Metaphors
4 The Rescue Operation
5 Will It Work?



First Quarter Review

The first quarter of 2008 was downright rocky as the S&P 500 posted a nearly ten percent decline.  In the past, the US stock market has dropped more than ten percent in only fifteen of the last two hundred quarters.  Investors were spooked by the continuing credit crisis and the uncertain outlook for the economy.  All of the major sectors of the S&P 500 declined.  The commodity markets continued to move ahead, creating a renewed fear of inflation in the midst of an economic slow down. The major international stock markets posted even larger declines than the US markets in the quarter. The only bright spot was found in high quality bonds, which posted positive returns.  Lower quality bonds and municipals declined in value due to credit concerns and forced selling by hedge funds.

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